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    desk analysis

    Next 90 days

    tbc = date unconfirmed

      The signal ladder

      structural → tape

      Revenue by quarter

      $B · hollow = est/guide

      Squawk box · daily digest

      What the desk will say before they say it

      Six chairs cover the whole TV desk, from the 6am sound-effects button to the 5pm options guy. Paste headlines and the desk writes a digest with the noise stripped, then predicts what each chair will say. Grade them; the desk keeps score.

      Today's digest

      rules engine

      Panel forecast

      signal share per seat

      Desk forecasts

      Once the backend is live, every digest ends with three graded forecasts: next-day direction, a 5-day level, a 5-day range.

      Track record

      the desk grades itself · Brier score, lower is better

      Blind tests

      sealed forecasts, opened against the tape

      Ask the desk

      One question at a time. It knows the snapshot, not the internet.

      Your calls, on the record

      this browser only

      Log a call for the next close before the open, then grade it. The desk keeps its own score above; this is yours.

      Log a call for the next close before the open. Grade it the next day. Streaks and badges live in this browser only.

      Today's call

      Record

        Badges

        Crash risk assessor

        How close is the cliff

        Eight factors, weighted. Defaults come from the snapshot; drag them to stress-test. The gauge is a composite, not a forecast.

        What flips it

          Factors

          What a crash has looked like

          peak-to-trough, approximate

          Growth projections

          Five futures, one expected value

          Each path compounds FY27 revenue for five years, applies a net margin and an exit multiple, and prices the stock. Edit the probabilities; the expected value updates.

          Scenarios

          click to inspect

          Probability-weighted 5-year target

          Price paths

          $/share, year-end

          Assumptions

          FY27 revenue base ≈ $404B (Q1 est $81.5B + Q2 $96.2B + Q3 guide $108B + Q4 est $118B). Shares 24.1B, shrinking 1.5%/yr on buybacks. Non-GAAP net margin was 56% last quarter.

          Forces on the price

          What is moving NVDA, by share of the move

          Each slice is the share of NVDA's recent daily variance that one economic force explains. The company-specific slice is what none of the outside forces can account for: earnings, guidance, policy, China.

          Weight of influence

          desk estimate

          The forces

          direction now · why it matters

            Table view

            Adjust the desk's weights

            renormalized to 100%

            Money flows and fiat

            Where it comes from, where it goes

            One quarter of cash, followed end to end. Then the dollar, the yen, the yuan and the 10-year, with the mechanism by which each one reaches the share price.

            Q2 FY27 cash flow, $B

            hover any band · opex and tax are estimates

            Customer segments

            YoY growth

            ACIE (AI clouds, industrial, enterprise) now grows faster than hyperscale. That is the diversification the bear case says does not exist.

            Capital return capacity

            $B

            $26B returned in the quarter is under 0.5% of market cap. The stock is not being bought up by buybacks; it is being priced on the next guide.

            Fiat dashboard

            as of snapshot · FOMC

            Rate and dollar sensitivity

            rule-of-thumb model, not a forecast

            Beginner desk

            Time machine and position builder

            What a lump sum or a monthly buy would have become, and what a position looks like today.

            Time machine

            Position builder

            Reading the print like a pro

            Call pricer

            Black-Scholes, no dividends

            IV crush simulator

            event tomorrow

            Theta decay of your call

            value vs days remaining, stock unchanged

            Strike ladder

            same expiry, same IV

            Arena

            Games that make you a better holder

            Every game pays XP. Every mistake pays a lesson. Chess is the flagship: your position against the market's pieces.

            Capex Chess

            your move

            Lesson

            Move a piece. Captures on either side trigger a lesson about the position that piece represents.

            Your pieces

            The market's

            Saved games

            Squawk Bullshit

            0 / 0

            A panelist just said this. Call it.

            Why this game

            President/Bullshit is a game about calling a lie with incomplete information. On the desk the lie is usually a true number with a false conclusion attached. Practice separating the two.

            Options Hold'em

            hand 1

            Scoring

            Each hand prices your call under three outcomes with the probabilities shown, before and after IV changes. Fold locks today's value. Call takes the distribution. Raise converts to a spread or rolls. The best action is the highest expected value. You score when you pick it.

            Earnings Blackjack

            bankroll: 100 shares

            The Market

            You

            Kelly corner

            NVIDY

            your move
            Master looks five moves ahead.

            Lesson

            How NVIDY works

            VLACKJACK

            bankroll: 100 contracts

            The dealer · market maker

            You · the holder

            Dealer gamma

            what they must do next

            House rules

            Snapshot figures from NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 release (Aug 26, 2026) and market data as of the Sept 11, 2026 close. Estimates are marked. Nothing here is investment advice; it is a training ground for a concentrated holder. NVIDIAddict is an independent product of daddinvest and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by NVIDIA Corporation; NVIDIA is a trademark of NVIDIA Corporation. Not a broker, adviser, or fiduciary.